tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-40507971561465877322024-03-16T18:51:35.630+00:00CONFIDENTIALLY SPEAKINGThe Africa Confidential blogUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger478125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4050797156146587732.post-80943745652893231002024-03-14T17:33:00.001+00:002024-03-14T17:33:50.361+00:00US envoy launches new push for Sudan peace<p>With just over nine months until the end of the current administration in the <strong>United States</strong>, <strong>Tom Perriello</strong>, a former Congressman and Director of the Open Society Foundation, has his work cut out as President <strong>Joe Biden</strong>'s Special Envoy for <strong>Sudan</strong>. <br /><br />Days after his appointment on 26 February, he launched a two-week tour of East Africa, <strong>Saudi Arabia</strong> and the <strong>United Arab Emirates</strong>. The purpose of the trip is to 'align efforts to bring an end to the devastating Sudan conflict,' says Perriello. That starts with finding interlocutors that both sides in the conflict will listen to. Attempts at mediating a ceasefire have been repeatedly obstructed by regional players taking sides in the civil war. He will also work closely with <strong>Ramtane Lamamra</strong>, <strong>Algeria</strong>'s former Foreign Minister and UN Envoy to Sudan.</p>
<p>The early signs underscore the scale of Perriello's challenge. On 8 March, the UN Security Council called for a ceasefire in Sudan during the holy month of Ramadan, urging 'all parties to the conflict to seek a sustainable solution to the conflict through dialogue'. But the Sudan Armed Forces led by General <strong>Abdel Fattah al Burhan</strong> rejected the call. After retaking control of the state broadcasting company in Omdurman on 12 March, it launched a counter-offensive, winning its first significant victory against the Rapid Support Forces of <strong>Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo 'Hemeti'</strong> since the civil war started a year ago.</p>Blue Lineshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15607901742993971727noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4050797156146587732.post-84302371381884815292024-02-29T11:25:00.001+00:002024-02-29T11:25:40.911+00:00Senegal's succession drama hits regional nerve<p><strong>Senegal</strong> had been edging back from the brink. But the latest plans put forward by civic, political and religious leaders for its delayed presidential elections to be held on 2 June, with President <strong>Macky Sall</strong> staying in office until then, threaten to reignite the crisis. Earlier, Sall had pledged to leave office on 2 April when his term expires, as the constitution requires. Opposition activists are understandably suspicious. The 2 June date came from the national dialogue panel set up by Sall. It also said that <strong>Karim Wade</strong>, Sall's new ally, should be allowed to contest the elections, but it was unclear whether leading oppositionist <strong>Ousmane Sonko</strong> be given an amnesty to stand.</p>
<p>The stakes are high, both for Senegal and West Africa more broadly. Should the dialogue panel's recommendations not be adopted or fall short of satisfying opposition parties and public opinion, Senegal's institutions will be tested again as passions rise. If the two sides cannot agree a compromise, few think that Ecowas could step in to resolve the crisis.</p>
<p>At an Ecowas summit on 24-25 February, West African leaders lifted economic sanctions on <strong>Niger</strong>, weeks after the military regimes of Niger, <strong>Mali</strong> and <strong>Burkina Faso</strong> announced plans to leave Ecowas for a new Sahelian union. Ecowas received no commitments from the junta in Niamey about a return to civilian rule. And talks about its demand that former President <strong>Mohamed Bazoum</strong> be released are making slow progress.</p>Blue Lineshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15607901742993971727noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4050797156146587732.post-82629125169573848012024-02-16T17:07:00.000+00:002024-02-16T17:07:00.150+00:00Why conflict and capital should top the African Union summit agenda<p style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">When leaders gather at the African Union summit in Addis Ababa on 17-18 February, they will face the most serious test of the organisation's credibility since its foundation in 2002.</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">The AU is being challenged at every level: most of all on its response to conflicts in the Horn of Africa, the Sahel, <strong>Congo-Kinshasa</strong>, northern <strong>Mozambique</strong> and the Maghreb.</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">More widely, populism, election-rigging and authoritarianism are gaining ground across the continent – as they are in Asia, the Americas and Europe.</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Some of the political pain is self-inflicted by predatory elites, some of it can be tracked back to heightening geopolitical rivalries in the region and the financial obstacle race with which governments must contend.</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Interest rates for so many African governments are hitting ruinously risky levels as <strong>Kenya</strong>'s seven-year Eurobond priced at 10.375% demonstrated this week. Servicing debt at these prices could force sweeping job cuts in the public sector, making much development spending unviable according to budget strictures.</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">People are taking to the streets as state spending on schools and clinics is squeezed or when one more incumbent President decides to extends their term in office.</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">So, the eagerness among citizens to discover how the AU leaders plan to address this daunting list of threats is wholly understandable. The response from the AU headquarters in Addis Ababa has been shrouded in secrecy but suggests a chronic lack of urgency.</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Take the roster of inter-state and internal conflicts outlined above; only one or two have been earmarked for the formal agenda.</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;"><strong>Ethiopia</strong>, the AU's host country, has blocked any discussion of its unilateral recognition of the territorial sovereignty of the breakaway state of Somaliland – much to the anger of the governments of <strong>Somalia</strong>, <strong>Djibouti</strong>, <strong>Eritrea</strong> and <strong>Egypt</strong>.</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Neither will there be any discussion of the Addis Ababa government's anti-insurgency campaign against dissidents in the Amhara and Oromo regions. Nor does anyone expect an acknowledgement of the man-made emergency in Tigray region where <strong>Britain</strong>'s Africa Minister <strong>Andrew Mitchell</strong> says that three million people have been plunged into a state of critical food security and hunger.</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">There will be a formal discussion of the deadly war in <strong>Sudan</strong> at the AU's Peace and Security Council, with representatives of the rival military factions in attendance. But AU efforts at peace-making there have been supplanted by the <strong>United States</strong> and<strong> Saudi Arabia</strong>, Egypt and its allies, and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Conditions are worsening in eastern Congo-K where the well-armed M23 militia is imposing a siege on Goma, close to the <strong>Rwanda</strong> border. Congo's President <strong>Félix Tshisekedi</strong> accuses his Rwandan counterpart <strong>Paul Kagame</strong> of backing the M23 for financial and strategic gain: both men are due in Addis for the summit.</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">But few expect serious dialogue between them to resume in Addis Ababa. The prospect is not bright for <strong>South Africa</strong>'s 2,900-strong intervention force sent in to combat the M23 and back a regional peace plan. That has sparked heavy criticism within South Africa, highlighting the poor state of preparedness of the country's national defence force.</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">To the far west in the Sahel and the coastal states, a multi-layered conflict and political crisis is unfolding. Three military-ruled states – <strong>Mali</strong>, <strong>Niger</strong> and <strong>Burkina Faso</strong> – have quit the regional grouping, the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) and are now planning to leave the Paris-backed CFA zone.</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">This follows the juntas' expulsion of international intervention forces sent to help national armies to defeat insurgent jihadist forces. Most of the foreign forces left last year but insurgent attacks have increased.</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">None of this has helped the authority of Ecowas which had imposed sanctions against the juntas; to little effect beyond stirring up animosity.</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">When <strong>Senegal</strong>'s President <strong>Macky Sall</strong> issued a decree postponing presidential elections due this month, another crisis was added to the Ecowas to do list. On 15 February, Senegal's Constitutional Court ruled that Sall's postponement was illegal and ordered the elections to be held as soon as possible.</p><p class="p3" style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">This institutional resistance may have averted a political implosion in Senegal. We hear that President Sall and <strong>Nigeria</strong>'s President <strong>Bola Tinubu</strong>, who currently chairs Ecowas, are due to meet on the sidelines of the AU summit this weekend.</p><p class="p4" style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Many of these pressing security issues are playing second fiddle to the politics in the AU's organisational management. <strong>Algeria</strong> and <strong>Morocco</strong> were rivals for the Chair of the AU – it is the turn of North Africa to offer a candidate.</p><p class="p5" style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;"><span class="s1">A compromise may have been found in the form of <strong>Mauritania</strong>'s President </span><strong>Mohamed Ould Cheikh el Ghazouani</strong> who could take over from outgoing Chair <strong>Comoros</strong> President <strong>Azali Assoumani</strong> at the summit. But <strong>Libya</strong>'s representatives have contested this.</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Another battleground is the race next year to succeed <strong>Chad</strong>'s <strong>Moussa Faki Mahamat</strong> as Chairman of the AU Commission, the body's permanent administration based in Addis Ababa.</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Kenya's former prime minister and veteran oppositionist <strong>Raila Odinga</strong> has already tossed his Stetson into the ring. And he has the blessing of his old rival, President <strong>William Ruto</strong>.</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">An effective AU which could accelerate progress on its African Continental Free Trade Area matters hugely for the continent and beyond. The AU is now a full member of the G20 and South Africa will host the organisation next year.</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">The world's working age population will grow by two billion between now and 2060 according to UN estimates. Some 80% of those workers will be in Africa.</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Making Africa's single market work and boosting investment in technology and infrastructure is critical to the continent's – and the world's – economic prospects.</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4050797156146587732.post-33571381666431425682024-02-15T17:58:00.001+00:002024-02-15T17:58:01.485+00:00African leaders gear up for crisis summit in Addis<p>When leaders gather at the African Union summit in Addis Ababa on 17-18 February, they will face the most serious test of the organisation's credibility since its foundation in 2002. The AU is being tested at every level: most devastatingly on its ability to prevent and resolve conflict across the Horn of Africa, the Sahel, <strong>Congo-Kinshasa</strong>, northern <strong>Mozambique</strong> and the Maghreb.</p>
<p>To stand a hope of forestalling political and military crises, the AU has to reassert the primacy of the political and governance ideals with which it was launched. These included the African Peer Review Mechanism, which enabled assessors from across the continent to report on progress in governance standards. Their reports implicitly ruled out electoral shenanigans, third presidential terms and military takeovers – all of which have now returned to Africa's political lexicon.</p>
<p>Since the AU was launched, populism, bad governance and authoritarianism have gained ground globally. Political reformers will have to redouble their efforts. As a full member of the G20 starting this year, the AU has a special role to play on the global stage. Next year, <strong>South Africa</strong> will host the G20 and set out the continent's agenda.</p>
<p>With the African Continental Free Trade Area, the AU is setting regulatory standards for business across the continent. But the leaders gathering in Addis shouldn't ignore the political chaos that bad governance leaves in its wake.</p>Blue Lineshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15607901742993971727noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4050797156146587732.post-2550119881122637942024-02-01T10:46:00.002+00:002024-02-01T10:46:36.617+00:00Sahel-exit will hit security across West Africa<p>The stage-managed decision by the military juntas in <strong>Mali</strong>, <strong>Burkina Faso</strong> and <strong>Niger</strong> to quit the Economic Community of West African States strikes at the organisation's credibility and at the region's framework for cooperation.</p>
<p>Some downplay its significance in financial terms. Less discussed is whether quitting the bloc will cause political and diplomatic damage. The rebel juntas are being courted by <strong>Russia</strong>, <strong>China</strong>, <strong>Saudi Arabia</strong>, the <strong>United Arab Emirates</strong> and <strong>Turkey</strong>. They may well have to rely on several of these countries for economic support.</p>
<p>Trade analysts point out that leaving the bloc could expose the juntas to higher tariffs and restrictions on the movement of goods. And having been shut out of international markets, the countries will no longer be able to access finance via Ecowas.</p>
<p><strong>Nigeria</strong> has described the joint withdrawal as an exercise in 'public posturing' that would hurt their people's economic interests.</p>
<p>Ecowas isn't alone with its fractures. The East African Community, with its customs unions and free-trade areas has been trying a broker a slew of tariff disputes between <strong>Kenya</strong>, <strong>Tanzania</strong> and <strong>Uganda</strong>. And the Intergovernmental Authority on Development is riven by disputes over Somaliland and the competing claims of the warring factions in <strong>Sudan</strong>. Holding these regional groupings together will dominate the African Union summit this month.</p>Blue Lineshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15607901742993971727noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4050797156146587732.post-68076531920311738822024-01-18T10:34:00.004+00:002024-01-18T14:33:32.696+00:00Dangote refinery starts up and points to Nigeria's missing investors<p>The start of production this week, after years of delay, of the Dangote Group's US$18.5 billion oil refinery opens a brave new world for <strong>Nigeria</strong>'s oil and gas sector, after 50 years of dependence on refined petroleum products from Europe. The refinery will initially produce diesel and aviation fuel, then ramp up production over the next year or more to reach 650,000 barrels a day of refined products, including petrol.</p>
<p>Aside from the new jobs created at the plant in Lagos, the refinery could transform Nigeria's economy and energy sector, cutting imports massively.</p>
<p><strong>Aliko Dangote</strong> thanked President <strong>Bola Ahmed Tinubu</strong> on social media for his support and encouragement, but relations between the two have deteriorated badly. The Dangote Group is under investigation by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission and its Lagos offices were raided at the beginning of the year by anti-corruption investigators in relation to US dollars secured by Dangote from the central bank, which is the centre of a wider investigation.</p>
<p>Beyond the Dangote-Tinubu animus lies a bigger question about the lack of investors in Africa's biggest economy. Dangote says the commercial viability of the refinery would demonstrate Nigeria's capacity to build and run major capital projects. If that holds, why are more leading investors leaving the market than entering it?</p>Blue Lineshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15607901742993971727noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4050797156146587732.post-31465285581092543302024-01-04T13:46:00.001+00:002024-01-04T13:46:48.373+00:00Regional leaders hold Sudan summit as Red Sea crisis escalates<p><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Efforts by regional leaders to convene talks between</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;"> </span><strong style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Sudan</strong><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">'s warring generals at the beginning of the year follow several failed international plans to end the brutal eight-month conflict. This is less a rebirth of multilateral African peacemaking than an acceptance that the</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;"> </span><strong style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Israel</strong><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">-Gaza and</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;"> </span><strong style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Russia</strong><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">-</span><strong style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Ukraine</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">wars will dominate the arena this year. And the Sudan talks have not been accompanied by similar initiatives to end the devastating conflicts in the Sahel or in eastern</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;"> </span><strong style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Congo-Kinshasa</strong><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">With the<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>United States</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>and European Union both facing elections this year, their Africa policies will take a back seat, with few initiatives or summits on the agenda. They may recalibrate their approach to an African initiative for the UN to launch an inter-governmental tax authority.</p><p style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">For Brussels, migration is a key concern of<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>Ursula von der Leyen</strong>'s European Commission and will dominate the European Parliament elections. The Commission wants to conclude a<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>'cash for migrant control'<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>deal with<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>Egypt</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>in early 2024.</p><p style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Fighting for a second term, US President<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>Joe Biden</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>is unlikely to make any sorties to Africa. After he approved the renewal of the US Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, which offers tariff- and quota-free exports for most African countries, Congress can choose between extending the existing act or expanding it to offer more beneficial terms.</p>Blue Lineshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15607901742993971727noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4050797156146587732.post-79031482839175364042023-12-14T16:44:00.001+00:002023-12-14T16:44:37.815+00:00After COP28, next stop carbon pricing deal and ending fossil fuel subsidies<p>The UN COP28 climate summit in Dubai is being heralded as a triumph by western nations and its <strong>Emirati</strong> hosts. That is largely because of the presence in the final communiqué of a commitment, albeit heavily qualified, to shift 'away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner'. It also allowed a compromise with international oil companies which have been promoting natural gas, less carbon-intensive than oil, as a transition fuel. Yet its envisaged pace of progress is far too slow for many African states hit hardest by climate change.</p>
<p>UN officials told <em>Africa Confidentia</em>l that progress towards a global carbon price and then tax – both are vital to raising finance for the transition and paying for loss and damage – needs to be turbo-charged. That lobby is getting louder, with IMF Managing Director <strong>Kristalina Georgieva</strong> insisting that ending the nearly US$7 trillion-a-year fossil fuels subsidies was essential.</p>
<p>African political leaders and civil society played a weightier role in these negotiations. They organised the launch of the Africa Green Industrialisation Initiative to discourage fossil fuels in oil-heavy African countries. But this will need massive investment. The funding pledges, some $700 million, to the Loss and Damage Fund dominated the start of the COP, but it is a derisory amount compared with the cost of the climate damage that needs to be repaired.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>Blue Lineshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15607901742993971727noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4050797156146587732.post-80753416402131057452023-11-30T10:20:00.001+00:002023-11-30T10:20:51.841+00:00Climate summit faces trillion dollar question on Loss and Damage Fund<p>The status and funding of the Loss and Damage Fund will be the main institutional issue facing African and other world leaders as the UN COP28 climate summit in Dubai opens on 30 November. It is set to become the third-leading UN channel for climate finance.</p>
<p>Agreement to launch the Fund, which is designed to compensate countries for the costs of extreme weather and climate change, was the key breakthrough at last year's summit in Sharm el Sheikh.</p>
<p>After months of difficult and secret negotiations, members of the Transitional Committee have agreed on most of the Fund's terms of reference, but some key questions remain outstanding. The Fund will be hosted by the World Bank for its first four years. It will also be available to all nations that are 'particularly vulnerable' to climate change, which represents a success for African states who had to fend off a <strong>Swiss</strong> proposal that the fund only cater, at least initially, to coastal and island states.</p>
<p>Less clear is how it will be paid for, by whom and over what timeframe. Officials have indicated that the <strong>United Arab Emirates</strong>, which is hosting the summit in Dubai, will pledge $10 billion to the Loss and Damage Fund. That would put pressure on the <strong>United States</strong>, the EU and others to make similar financial commitments. But it would not solve the question of how the Fund, expected to be a long-term financing tool, could become viable.</p>Blue Lineshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15607901742993971727noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4050797156146587732.post-85962454922420350602023-11-16T22:35:00.001+00:002023-11-16T22:35:52.551+00:00Why Britain’s failed asylum deal with Rwanda is everyone’s problem<p><strong>Britain</strong>'s Prime Minister <strong>Rishi Sunak</strong> has vowed to draft a new treaty on migration with <strong>Rwanda</strong> after the Supreme Court in London struck down a £140 million (US$174m) 'cash for asylum seekers' deal with President <strong>Paul Kagame</strong>'s government. The ruling is a major blow for Sunak, who has made migration control one of his government's top priorities.</p>
<p>On 15 November, Lord <strong>Reed</strong>, the president of the Court, said the judges agreed unanimously with a Court of Appeal ruling in June that there was a strong risk of claims being wrongly determined in Rwanda, resulting in genuine asylum seekers being returned to their country of origin (refoulement). He said a similar accord between <b>Israel</b> and Rwanda had failed.</p>
<p>Under the 2022 agreement, asylum seekers would be flown to Rwanda, where their asylum claims would be assessed. The first planned flights were blocked a year ago by the European Court of Human Rights, which imposed an injunction barring deportations until all legal action was concluded.</p>
<p>This latest setback for London could also hit the EU, whose institutions and member states have followed Britain's lead. The European Commission has spent recent months negotiating migrant control agreements with <strong>Tunisia</strong> and <strong>Egypt</strong>. These are designed to prevent boats carrying migrants from crossing the Mediterranean rather than processing claims outside the EU.</p>Blue Lineshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15607901742993971727noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4050797156146587732.post-44103130977721606382023-11-02T18:19:00.002+00:002023-11-02T18:19:46.791+00:00Egypt seeks economic aid as Israel-Hamas war escalates<p>Already facing record levels of inflation, <strong>Egypt</strong>'s economic woes were deepened by a credit rating downgrade in October attributed to growing concerns about its debt affordability. The IMF has warned that Egypt's foreign exchange reserves will continue southwards unless it again devalues its currency, which has lost half its value since March.</p>
<p>As Egypt becomes a focal point in the fallout from the war between <strong>Israel</strong> and Hamas, international agencies are looking for ways to prop up its economy. The European Union has been quick to recognise the strategic importance of Cairo amid the risks of war spreading. Officials in Brussels say that food imports, specifically <strong>Ukrainian</strong> grain, could be part of a broad package of economic support in exchange for Egypt controlling its borders in the event of a surge in migratory flows from Gaza. That is likely to be supplemented with direct budget support and finance for border controls and infrastructure projects.</p>
<p>Deserving or not, the winner in all this will be Egypt's President <strong>Abdel Fattah el Sisi</strong> with just six weeks until elections on 10 December. Details on the projects, and the sums of money involved, are secret, but we can expect the total value to be significantly higher than the €785 million deal cut with <strong>Tunisia</strong> in July. The <strong>United States</strong> is more restricted but may decide to unblock military aid frozen because of human rights concerns in Egypt.</p>Blue Lineshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15607901742993971727noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4050797156146587732.post-45836435761584376032023-10-19T11:58:00.003+01:002023-10-19T19:40:05.886+01:00African Union chief accuses Israel of war crimes<p><span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 11px;">The explosion at the Al-Ahil Hospital in Gaza has underscored the limits on</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 11px;"> </span><strong style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Israel</strong><span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 11px;">'s political support from African states just days after Hamas's 7 October attacks killed more than 1,400 people in southern Israel.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">AU Commission chairman<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>Moussa Faki Mahamat</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>and<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>South Africa</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>have accused Israel of a<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>'war crime'<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>following the explosion, which the Gaza health authorities said had killed over 300 people. Moussa Faki granted Israel observer status at the AU in 2021 but he backtracked following protests led by<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>Algeria</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>and South Africa.</p><p style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Israel's efforts, backed by the<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>United States</strong>, to assert that the hospital explosion was caused by a misfired missile by Palestinian Islamic Jihad are getting little air time in the Middle East and Africa.</p><p style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Popular anger against Israel's siege of Gaza as well as its bombardment, which is reckoned to have killed over 3,000 people since 7 October, is driving the argument over responsibility for the deaths.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>Morocco</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>and<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>Egypt</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>both blamed the Israel Defense Force.</p><p style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">In a joint statement on 15 October, Moussa Faki and Arab League Secretary-General<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>Ahmed Aboul Gheit</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>warned that Israel's planned ground invasion of Gaza<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>'could lead to a genocide of unprecedented proportions.'<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>In Beijing, UN Secretary-General<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>António Guterres</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>condemned the Hamas attacks but argued they could not justify the collective punishment of Palestinians.</p>Blue Lineshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15607901742993971727noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4050797156146587732.post-61887359639997000062023-10-05T11:15:00.002+01:002023-10-05T12:03:51.680+01:00Will 'earthquake diplomacy' work at the IMF and World Bank meeting in Marrakech?<p>Out of the phenomenon known as 'earthquake diplomacy' – as practised in Fukushima, Bali and l'Aquila – natural disasters have given grand multilateral meetings a shot in the arm and a sense of purpose. That is what the what the <strong>Moroccan</strong> government hopes will happen when Marrakech hosts the IMF and the World Bank annual meetings on 9-16 October, less than a month after a major earthquake struck the city.</p>
<p>After a few days of hesitation, Morocco's government calculated that it should press ahead with the meetings which could help it raise support for its five-year reconstruction plan costed at US$11.5 billion. Rabat's diplomats will also use the meetings to reinforce Morocco's role as a renewable energy pioneer with fast-developing manufacturing and tech hubs. All that was on display in June when Marrakech hosted the Bloomberg New Economy summit.</p>
<p>All that fits in with the efforts by IMF Managing Director <strong>Kristalina Georgieva</strong> and World Bank President <strong>Ajay Banga</strong> to work more closely together to boost lending for climate and infrastructure projects. The two institutions have set up a Climate Advisory Group together to coordinate policy on finance for middle-income countries and are to work more closely on debt restructuring for countries hit hardest by climate change. The Bank is also due to spell out why it wants to raise lending to developing economies by $100billion over the next decade.</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4050797156146587732.post-8850172659113355442023-09-22T09:25:00.000+01:002023-09-22T09:25:02.478+01:00Africa states its case as demands for UN reform grow<p><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">The 40 African leaders at this week's UN General Assembly contrasts with the absence of four leaders of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and points to an imbalance in multilateralism. Geopolitics helps explain it.</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;"> </span><strong style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Russia</strong><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">'s invasion of</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;"> </span><strong style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Ukraine</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">breaches the UN charter and President</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;"> </span><strong style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Vladimir Putin</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">has been indicted for war crimes.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Yet this UN summit was meant to discuss how to reform the multilateral system – UN institutions as well as the IMF and World Bank. That's not going to make much progress in New York, nor at the foreshortened IMF and World Bank meetings next month in Marrakech, still recovering from its devastating earthquake.</p><p style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">African leaders have filled some of the vacuum. In his maiden speech,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>Nigeria</strong>'s<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>Bola Tinubu</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>made a pitch for West Africans to push back against military coups, but played down earlier threats of force against the<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>Niger</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>junta. And<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>South Africa</strong>'s<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>Cyril Ramaphosa</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>passionately asserted the continent's right to green energy, saying that Africa 'would no longer pay for the industrialisation of the north'.</p><p style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;"><strong>Kenya</strong>'s<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>William Ruto</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>is proving adept at juggling bilaterals at the heart of UNGA summitry. On 18 September he co-hosted a food security summit with<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>Samantha Power</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>of USAID. The next day he met with Ukraine's President<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>Volodymyr Zelensky</strong>, pledging support and offering to establish a 'grain hub'<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>in Kenya to address shortages in East Africa.</p>Blue Lineshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15607901742993971727noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4050797156146587732.post-11665170220325111732023-09-07T12:57:00.000+01:002023-09-07T12:57:03.042+01:00Will Africa's G20 membership produce a breakthrough on climate finance?<p>In the absence of <strong>Russia</strong>'s <strong>Vladimir Putin</strong> and <strong>China</strong>'s <strong>Xi Jinping</strong>, the European Union will hold an informal 'mini-summit' with the African Union on the margins of the G20's summit in New Delhi on 9-10 September. That is being marketed as a political win in Brussels. <strong>Indian</strong> Prime Minister <strong>Narendra Modi</strong>, who is hosting the gathering, has used the G20 presidency to formally invite the AU to join the club on the same terms as the EU.</p>
<p>Less clear is how and whether an African seat will translate into more political influence for the continent. The EU is likely to push for partnership with Africa on a global carbon pricing mechanism ahead of November's COP28 climate summit in Dubai. That would advance Europe's interests, since this would amount to a global equivalent of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism which imposes a levy on imports based on their carbon emissions. But it is likely to divide African states between the fossil fuel producers and the rest.</p>
<p>In exchange for carbon pricing, African leaders are demanding support for an ambitious loss and damage fund – on which industrial economies are getting cold feet – and also for reform of the multilateral financial institutions based on the Bridgetown agenda pushed by <strong>Barbadian</strong> premier <strong>Mia Mottley</strong> to boost climate finance by issuing more IMF special drawing rights. These will test whether attending the G20 will translate into influence.</p>Blue Lineshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15607901742993971727noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4050797156146587732.post-42493692103471116802023-08-24T10:10:00.001+01:002023-08-24T10:10:20.516+01:00After Prigozhin, what next for Wagner in Africa?<p>The crash of a plane on 23 August with <strong>Yevgeny Prigozhin</strong>, the leader of <strong>Russia</strong>'s mercenary Wagner Group, said to be on board will do little to resolve the questions surrounding the company since its thwarted march on Moscow. Prigozhin and his deputy, <strong>Dmitry Utkin</strong>, were reported among the ten who died.</p>
<p>Whatever and whoever was responsible for the plane crash, it leaves the Wagner Group network ready for takeover by Russia's military or a merger with another quasi-autonomous mercenary company. This time, the Kremlin is likely to keep a tighter grip on the organisation, although it valued the plausible deniability of Wagner's operations. After the <strong>Niger</strong> putsch, the Kremlin backed the African Union's call for a speedy return to constitutional government; Wagner celebrated the putsch as a victory against <strong>French</strong> neo-colonialism. Whoever prevails in Niamey, Moscow would hope to have a line to them.</p>
<p>Foreign Minister <strong>Sergei Lavrov</strong> said that the fate of Wagner's contracts was in the hands of African states; <strong>Vladimir Putin</strong> then remarked that Wagner was 'fully financed' by the Russian state. Prigozhin was then spotted at the Russia-Africa summit hosted by Putin last month, prompting further questions about their relationship. Those seem to have been answered with the plane crash. The big question now will be how Putin manages Wagner's assets in Africa and how far he can control its surviving leaders.</p>Blue Lineshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15607901742993971727noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4050797156146587732.post-42140653863901448682023-08-03T15:38:00.002+01:002023-08-03T15:38:41.996+01:00Sahel crisis needs fast political rethink<p><strong>Niger</strong>'s putsch of 26 July ousted the last but one elected president in the Sahel region. Only <strong>Mauritania</strong> retains an elected leader, <strong>Mohamed Ould Ghazouani</strong>. All the other countries are run by military governments and are at war. The junta in <strong>Mali</strong> has lost control of much territory on the border with Niger and <strong>Burkina Faso</strong>, an area now under control of Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS).</p>
<p>This latest power grab in Niamey may have been born out of frustration over security but also to protect the interests of senior officers under investigation. The junta leaders say they want more arms to defeat the insurgents and <strong>Russia</strong>'s Wagner Group is eager to replace trainers and suppliers from the European Union.</p>
<p>A purely military approach isn't working in Mali and Burkina Faso and creates more recruits for the jihadists. Niger is being assailed from two sides, both by branches of Islamic State/Da'ish: one branch on the border with <strong>Nigeria</strong>, <strong>Chad</strong> and <strong>Cameroon</strong> and ISGS on the Mali/Burkina Faso border.</p>
<p>Niger was the last of the Sahelian nations doing counter-insurgency the 'western' way. Supporters of ousted President <strong>Mohamed Bazoum</strong> insist it was working and Niger was defending its territory more effectively that Mali and Burkina Faso, suffering fewer casualties than its neighbours. Should the putsch presage a total break with western militaries and Wagner move into the vacuum, Nigériens could see more human rights abuses and more recruits for the jihadists.</p>Blue Lineshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15607901742993971727noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4050797156146587732.post-2868817655851649982023-07-20T10:21:00.000+01:002023-07-20T10:21:05.681+01:00Will Ruto rethink his austerity plan as protests spread?<p>The political costs of the financial crisis in developing economies are emerging centre stage but not in predictable places. Debt-laden <strong>Ghana</strong> and <strong>Zambia</strong> are nearing the end of their tortuous debt restructuring negotiations while citizens take the brunt of public spending cuts. None of that has yet triggered a wave of determined protests in Accra or Lusaka.</p>
<p>Instead, the heaviest protests have been in <strong>Kenya</strong>, where President <strong>William Ruto</strong> had won an election last year by promising to build up the country's small businesses with cheap government finance and boost public health and education services. Kenya's debt-to-GDP burden of 68% is high but not catastrophic and its GDP is forecast to grow to 5.3% this year. That informed Ruto's belief that Kenya could tough out the next couple of years with an austerity programme and a spate of heavy tax rises hitting the middle classes but avoiding debt restructuring. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>
<p>In the last month of protests against higher taxes and public spending cuts, at least 15 people lost their lives in Kenya. These demonstrations could become a fixture with neither side willing to give ground. Ruto may be willing to take that risk, but his strategy could do long-term economic damage. <strong>Greece</strong>'s economic travails a decade ago showed that relying on tax rises to finance debt repayments can crash a fragile economy, turning a crisis into a prolonged depression.</p>Blue Lineshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15607901742993971727noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4050797156146587732.post-73321065727532399852023-07-06T12:48:00.001+01:002023-07-06T12:48:02.585+01:00What Zambia’s new deal means for countries in debt traps<p>The deal to restructure over US$6 billion of <strong>Zambia</strong>'s foreign debt is a triumph for President <strong>Hakainde Hichilema</strong>, under whose government the country will save billions in repayments if, as is now much more likely, he secures a second term.</p>
<p>Much kudos should go to Finance Minister <strong>Situmbeko Musokotwane</strong>, who deftly navigated pressures from a smorgasbord of rival creditors. Getting creditors led by <strong>China</strong> and <strong>France</strong> to agree the core terms – extending maturities over some 20 years with a three-year grace period – had looked impossible.</p>
<p>What does this mean for 70 low-income countries owing some $326bn? Zambia's breakthrough, with all its national specificities, is not a blueprint. It reinforces the case for global financial reform, the subject of President Macron's conference in Paris where the deal was announced.</p>
<p>Delegates in Paris struggled to agree on first principles: western treasuries are cutting funds to developing economies; many middle-income countries are chary about the IMF and World Bank doing much more on debt and infrastructure; China's offer of more finance for the multilateral banks is premised on taking a bigger stake in them, and that's anathema to Washington. To break that logjam will require negotiating skills of the kind that established the UN system, over 75 years ago. And they are in short supply, like capital in developing economies.</p>Blue Lineshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15607901742993971727noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4050797156146587732.post-19825121173199398492023-06-22T15:31:00.000+01:002023-06-22T15:31:20.516+01:00Sierra Leone's Maada Bio faces election test<p>About 3.4 million <strong>Sierra Leoneans</strong> are expected to vote in a general election on 24 June in which incumbent President <strong>Julius Maada Bio</strong> is seeking a second and final term. Although 13 candidates will be on the ballot paper, the poll is widely expected to be a re-run of the 2018 election, where Bio narrowly defeated <strong>Samura Kamara</strong> of the All People's Congress (APC) party.</p>
<p>Bio made a positive start back in 2018, setting up a judicial inquiry into the unexplained wealth of his predecessor <strong>Ernest Bai Koroma</strong>. But his government failed to reboot the ailing economy. Nearly 60% of Sierra Leone's 7 million people are poor, with unemployment one of the highest in West Africa. Last August, economic hardship prompted anti-government protests which turned violent. That, combined with soaring prices and currency devaluation, has given Kamara his main lines of attack.</p>
<p>More concerning, in the country's fifth general election since the official end of the civil war in 2002, have been disputes between the APC and Bio's Sierra Leone People's Party over the administration of the polls. Kamara has called for the electoral commission to resign.</p>
<p>But Bio remains the clear favourite. He will hope that having the endorsement of the third-placed candidate in 2018, the technocratic <strong>Kandeh Yumkella</strong>, will be decisive, though Bio is unlikely to win the 55% needed in the first round to avoid a runoff.</p>Blue Lineshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15607901742993971727noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4050797156146587732.post-31611525851657257332023-06-08T09:46:00.001+01:002023-06-08T09:46:45.335+01:00Can Ajay Banga fix the World Bank?<p>When <strong>Ajay Banga</strong> went on his campaign tour, government and financial leaders were keen to meet the former Mastercard chief executive and tout his credentials as the reformist needed to shake up a sclerotic World Bank. Now installed as President, Banga will be under pressure to drive the reform of the international financial institutions, taking in at least some ideas from <strong>Mia Mottley</strong>, Prime Minister of <strong>Barbados</strong>, whose recommendations were endorsed at last November's UN COP27 summit.</p>
<p>Along with balancing demands for a rapid increase in green spending and programmes to tackle inequality, the push for a new global debt relief programme needs a new leader. <strong>French</strong> President <strong>Emmanuel Macron</strong> will host the Summit for a New Global Financing Pact, but diplomats complain that preparations have been chaotic with no clear sense of what Macron hopes to achieve.</p>
<p>Banga starts with plenty of in-house problems. Officials say that the World Bank's governance structure is neither executive nor strategic and has allowed national government representatives to prioritise domestic interests over global needs. Such shortcomings go some way to explaining why the Bank has failed to deliver more on climate finance and poverty reduction. It is also a long way from the business world in which Banga carved out his career. He will have to be much<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>bolder and more political if he is to meet those lofty demands.</p>Blue Lineshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15607901742993971727noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4050797156146587732.post-65239944682367795982023-05-25T14:16:00.004+01:002023-05-25T14:16:32.555+01:00Will carbon trading help Africa's revenue woes?<p>The launch of the African Carbon Markets Initiative (ACMI) following last November's UN COP27 summit in <strong>Egypt</strong> was a major milestone towards making climate finance available and expanding clean energy across the continent. Governments are now setting out their own plans to tap the carbon credits market.</p>
<p><strong>Zimbabwe</strong>'s environment and climate minister <strong>Mangaliso Ndlovu</strong> announced that all carbon projects in the country would be required to register with the authorities and that the government will take 50% of all revenue from projects, with foreign investors limited to 30% and the balance of 20% going to local communities.</p>
<p>The government in Harare is not acting alone. Last week, <strong>Tanzania</strong> signed its own agreement on Africa's largest carbon offset project. <strong>Kenyan</strong> President <strong>William Ruto</strong> has said that the EU could use more African carbon credits in its existing emission trading markets. Ruto's government intends to pass legislation to regulate the generation of carbon credits in June.</p>
<p>It makes sense for African states to play leading roles in this transition. The EU has now passed into law its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which will hurt African exports unless the continent prioritises major carbon emissions cuts. Other jurisdictions are likely to follow suit, and those who are first to market will get to set the global rules.</p>Blue Lineshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15607901742993971727noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4050797156146587732.post-73878901340316254502023-05-11T13:35:00.001+01:002023-05-11T13:35:18.091+01:00Can Saudi Arabia mediate peace in Sudan?<p>Reports that the negotiations between representatives of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Jeddah are in the final stages of reaching agreement to allow humanitarian aid to reach Khartoum and cities in Darfur offer a shard of hope to the <strong>Sudanese</strong>. Yet few think the rival generals see a ceasefire as a logical endpoint after realising that neither can win quickly.</p>
<p>On the evidence that fighting has intensified over the past week, it is hard to believe that the secretive Jeddah talks have moved the dial much towards peace. By 10 May, there were reports that the <strong>Saudi Arabia</strong>-<strong>United States</strong> mediated talks might yield some declaration of principles and a pact, albeit temporary, to allow a corridor through which to transport the food, medicine and fuel needed by aid agencies.</p>
<p>The failed negotiations between <strong>Ethiopia</strong>'s federal government under Prime Minister <strong>Abiy Ahmed</strong> and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) showed the limited value of joint declarations without missions on the ground to ensure implementation. A rush to secure a ceasefire without planning what should follow and the actors to be involved in the next negotiations could simply entrench the positions of Generals <strong>Burhan</strong> and <strong>Hemeti</strong>.<br /><br />A catastrophe is looming in states neighbouring Sudan. Close to a million people have fled to these countries, many of them taking weapons and grievances with them.</p>Blue Lineshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15607901742993971727noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4050797156146587732.post-4585748530617513772023-04-28T09:23:00.002+01:002023-04-28T09:24:05.489+01:00South Africa faces both ways in ICC-Putin row<p><span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 11px;">Facing the prospect of</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 11px;"> </span><strong style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Russia</strong><span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 11px;">'s President</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 11px;"> </span><strong style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Vladimir Putin</strong><span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 11px;">, indicted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court, landing in Cape Town to attend a BRICS summit in August,</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 11px;"> </span><strong style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">Cyril Ramaphosa</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 11px;"> </span><span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 11px;">has backed himself into a corner.</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 11px;"> </span><strong style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;">South Africa</strong><span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 11px;">'s membership of the ICC obliges the authorities to arrest Putin if he travels to the country. And western embassies in Pretoria regard the matter as a litmus test.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; text-size-adjust: auto;">Late on 25 April, Ramaphosa issued a statement backtracking on an announcement earlier that day that South Africa intended to leave the ICC. The confusion, it appears, was over whether Ramaphosa's ANC had passed a resolution to leave the court.</p><p style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; text-size-adjust: auto;">Unhappiness about the perception, not without justification, that the ICC has been far more activist in prosecuting cases in Africa than other regions, is not unique to South Africa. Yet its confusion over whether to leave an international institution designed to try war criminals comes at a critical time. This week, diplomats and international officials were scrambling to flee<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>Sudan</strong><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>having presided over failed negotiations for a transition to civil rule. They are leaving the Sudanese people to face the depredations of a conflict in which rival forces believe they operate with impunity. Yet, the rival commanders may one day be charged at the ICC. It would send a terrible signal for South Africa to weaken its support for the institution.</p>Blue Lineshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15607901742993971727noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4050797156146587732.post-64708954362503842892023-04-13T09:44:00.001+01:002023-04-13T09:44:05.981+01:00Rare China-US cooperation could end logjam on debt deals<p>The expectation that <strong>China</strong> will drop its longstanding demand for multilateral lenders, including the World Bank and IMF, to share losses alongside other creditors in sovereign debt restructurings for poor countries, is one of the main breakthroughs of the 10-16 April Spring Meetings. In return, the World Bank would provide new concessional financing to countries that have defaulted. And together with the IMF, it would ensure that their debt sustainability analyses of countries undergoing restructurings will be made available to China's authorities earlier in the process.</p>
<p>The proposals emerged in a special session in Washington DC on 12 April attended by governor of the People's Bank of China <strong>Yi Gang</strong>, <strong>United States</strong> Treasury Secretary <strong>Janet Yellen</strong>, IMF Managing Director <strong>Kristalina Georgieva</strong>, and outgoing World Bank President <strong>David Malpass</strong>. The agreement should speed up debt restructurings in <strong>Zambia</strong>, <strong>Ethiopia</strong>, and <strong>Ghana</strong> and dampen some of the geo-political rivalry that has been blocking progress on a new debt relief programme.</p>
<p>Yet much more has to be done to forestall a worsening debt avalanche, according to a new report from Boston University. Up to US$500 billion in debt owed by 61 nations – nearly 30 of them in Africa – at greatest risk of default should be written off to avoid 'cascading defaults', it reports. This would require a flexibility from creditors far beyond what is currently under consideration.</p>Blue Lineshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15607901742993971727noreply@blogger.com0